Road traffic: to rise by 32 per cent by 2025

The latest Road Traffic Forecasts published by the Department for Transport show total traffic on the GB road network continuing to grow over the coming decades at similar rates to the recent past, but at a significantly slower pace compared to the period before 1990.

• In line with recent trends, light goods vehicle traffic is forecast to increase most rapidly with expected growth of 63 per cent over the period. Growth in light goods vehicle traffic has generally increased in line with GDP in the past and this is projected to continue. Despite this, lgvs are still expected to account for only around 15 per cent of total traffic in 2025 (up from 12 per cent in 2003)
• Over the last 20 years, hgv traffic has grown more slowly than car traffic and the latest forecast is based on a continuation of this trend. One of the determinants of hgv traffic forecasts is the trend in the average length of haul, which has flattened off considerably in recent years. Hgv traffic growth of 14 per cent is forecast between 2003 and 2025 compared to 32 per cent for traffic overall. Hgv traffic growth is concentrated on strategic roads (where it is expected to rise by 17 per cent)

The forecast rise in congestion is significantly higher than previously forecast, largely due to the fact that the new demographic and land use planning assumptions forecast the population to be much more concentrated in urban areas where congestion is more prevalent.

The forecasts take account of the changes to forecast GDP growth set out in the 2008 Pre-Budget Report. Recent economic events are affecting traffic, congestion and CO2 markedly, mimicking the impacts of previous high oil price and recessionary periods.